Location
Glenrothes is one of Scotland’s most successful New towns. With a resident population in the region of 40,000, it is located within the Fife region approximately 31 miles to the north of Edinburgh and 22 miles to the south of Dundee and Perth. The town has good accessibility via the upgraded A92 trunk road and its proximity to surrounding centres is illustrated by the following approximate drive times:-
| St Andrews | 25 minutes |
| Dunfermline | 30 minutes |
| Perth | 30 minutes |
| Dundee | 35 minutes |
| Edinburgh | 45 minutes |
Glenrothes is becoming an increasingly desirable area to live, indicated by the growing number of new residential developments in the immediate and surrounding areas. Some 2,500 new homes are currently either being built or in the planning stages, all of which is adding to the vibrancy of the town.
Description
The Kingdom Shopping Centre is the prime retailing location in Glenrothes. As the town centre, it performs both comparison and convenience shopping functions. At present it provides approximately 40,000 sq m (430,000 sq ft) of covered retail and leisure accommodation on a single level mall. Current levels of footfall average approximately 200,000 people per week.
Social Economic Context
In December 2000, DTZ Pieda Consulting carried out an Economic Review and Retail Profile Study of the Kingdom Centre catchment area. The main findings are summarised below.
Catchment Population
The main catchment area of the Kingdom Centre for non-food shopping covers Central Fife, which includes Glenrothes, Kirkcaldy, Methil/Leven and Burntisland. The population of this area is nearly 147,000, which is projected to decline slightly (2.5%) by 2011. In terms of age structure, the population is fairly similar to that of Scotland and Great Britain.
Gross Domestic Product
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Fife grew faster than the economies of both Scotland and Great Britain during the 1990s. Overall, Central Fife’s growth over the period 1991-97 was 24% compared with 15% at the national (GB) level. Productivity in Fife, in terms of GDP per employee, is higher than the national average.
Employment Change 1991-98
Overall, employment in Fife, including Central Fife, grew by 4% during 1991-98, compared to only 1% in Scotland. This is a good regional performance, but less than the GB growth of 8.5%. Unemployment in Central Fife (7.4%) is above the Scottish average of 5.5%.
Industrial Structure
The economic structure of Central Fife is similar to Fife as a whole. In Fife, the service sector accounts for 68% of all economic activity. The manufacturing sector in Central Fife is slightly larger and there is a greater dependence on public service employment in Central Fife compared to Fife as a whole. It should be noted that the manufacturing sector contains a significant element of high tech industries. Retailing accounts for 11% of employment.
Average Earnings and Workforce Characteristics
Average gross weekly earnings in Fife/Central Fife are 7% lower than the Scottish average. The workforce is reasonably well skilled, but with a lower proportion of managers and professionals than the national average.
Future Economic Prospects
Recent economic developments in Fife indicate a positive outlook. A number of major inward investments are expected to create additional jobs in high tech industries, such as electronics and semi conductors. This includes Motorola by Dunfermline and ADC Telecommunications and Dalgon in Glenrothes. Results from an independent review of the Invest in Fife Partnership suggest that Fife has performed better than most other areas in Scotland in terms of securing inward investment. Forecasts by Cambridge Econometrics predict that employment is set to increase in Fife.
The Fife economy is forecast to perform comparatively well compared with the Scottish and GB economies, with a growth in output 2- 2.5% per annum to 2004, followed by 3% per annum thereafter. Overall, the economic outlook for Central Fife is encouraging and will assist in underpinning future growth.
Retail Turnover & Expenditure Growth
Glenrothes and Kirkcaldy Town Centres are the principal shopping centres serving Central Fife. Shopper surveys indicate a significant level of inter-related shopping patterns that justify our view that they share the same main catchment.
The non food (comparison) expenditure potential relating to residents of the catchment area amounts to £249 million*. With estimated expenditure leakage of 25% and inward expenditure of 20%, the turnover of comparison shops within the main catchment is £236 million. The comparison goods turnover of the Kingdom Centre is estimated at £49 million, or 21% of the turnover of shops within the catchment area.
The projected comparison expenditure growth from 2000-06 that could be retained in Central Fife is nearly £37 million, with a further possible £43 million or so from 2006-2011, after allowing for continuing expenditure leakage. DTZ Pieda estimate that the Kingdom Centre could feasibly secure a share of more than £9 million by 2006 and an additional £10 million by 2011, assuming that its share of expenditure growth expands by a similar rate to the growth in Zone A retail rentals (53% over the past seven years). About 60% of this figure would relate to clothing, footwear and other personal goods.
*All values are in constant 1996 prices.
Customer Profile
The “Acorn” system of customer profiling has been applied to the population of the main catchment area to reveal its socio-economic structure. This classification is based on life-styles and is highly relevant to retailers. The results of the profiling indicate that, while Central Fife has a lower proportion among the affluent groups than the Scottish average, it has a higher proportion of skilled workers with their own homes and better-off local authority housing residents. This profile does not work against the aim of the CIS to improve the quality of retailing, including fashion, in the Kingdom Centre, but it will influence the type/range of shops proposed.
Conclusion
The future economic prospects for the catchment area of the Kingdom Centre are good and the Centre has performed reasonably well compared with others. There is an opportunity to benefit from projected growth in retail spending in Central Fife. These factors are supportive of future investment in the Kingdom Centre.